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Creating a Crystal Ball for What Deals Will Sell and Why

In commercial real estate, the hunt for off-market deals is akin to seeking a diamond in the rough.

What if you could know which assets are more likely to be sold even before they hit the market?

This is where Archer's innovative "Seller Propensity Score" comes into play, transforming the way investors and brokers identify potential deals.

Understanding Seller Propensity:

At the heart of every real estate transaction is an owner's decision to sell. This decision is influenced by a multitude of factors, many of which lurk beneath the surface of conventional market analyses. Recognizing these underlying motivators is crucial in the predictive realm of off-market deals.

Archer - Seller Propensity

The Data-Driven Approach:

Archer's Seller Propensity Score isn't just a mere hypothesis; it's a data-driven formula backed by a quarter-century of sales records. Our technology scours through market fluctuations, ownership patterns, and nuanced financial indicators to pinpoint signs that signal a higher likelihood of an owner’s intent to sell.

Key Factors in Predicting Seller Intent:

  • Market Dynamics: Changes in the market can often nudge owners toward a sale. We look for shifts in demographics, economic indicators, and emerging trends that historically correlate with increased sales activity.
  • Ownership Patterns: Long-term ownership, coupled with certain market conditions, can sometimes suggest a readiness to divest, particularly when aligned with the owner’s historical transaction behavior.
  • Financial Indicators: Analyzing financial health and the performance metrics of assets can reveal which properties are ripe for a transaction, often before the owner has even made a decision public.

Spending Time Wisely:

Time is a non-renewable resource in the real estate world. Armed with Archer's Seller Propensity Score, you can strategically direct your efforts towards engaging with leads that exhibit a higher probability of proceeding to a sale. This precise targeting drastically reduces time wasted on dead-end prospects and increases the likelihood of a successful deal.

Back Testing for Validation:

Our approach isn't based on theoretical assumptions. Archer’s models have been rigorously backtested against decades of data. In collaboration with seasoned brokers and investors, we've distilled a multitude of factors into a predictive tool that’s proven to be 44% more effective than traditional sourcing methods.

Case Study:

Take, for example, a mid-size multifamily property in a transitioning neighborhood. While most eyes were on newer, flashier developments, Archer’s analytics picked up on subtle cues: a slight dip in occupancy rates, an increase in rents, and the owner's being well past its typical hold period. These data points, which may go unnoticed in a standard market analysis, are where Archer shines. The property was indeed sold 6 months later in an off-market transaction, precisely as our Seller Propensity Score had indicated.


In an industry where off-market deals can be a game-changer, having the right information is key. Archer's Seller Propensity Score isn't just another tool; it’s a paradigm shift in identifying and securing off-market opportunities. By marrying robust historical insights with modern technology and expertise, Archer empowers real estate professionals to predict the market like never before. With this score, you're not just staying ahead of the curve—you're defining it.

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